Taking a brief look at potential #1 Centers for the ‘Yotes

By: Seth Haahr

Martin Hanzal:
Age: 28
Height: 6”6”
Goals (2015): 8
Assists (2015): 16
Point (2015: 24
Games Played (2015): 37
G/Gm: 0.216
A/Gm: 0.432
P/Gm:  0.648

Antoine Vermette:
Age: 33
Height: 6’1”
Goals (2015): 13
Assists (2015): 25 (3 with Chicago)
Point (2015: 38
Games Played (2015): 82 (19 in Chicago)
G/Gm: 0.158
A/Gm: 0.305
P/Gm: 0.463

The Coyotes do not have a true #1 C that is ready to play at this moment. The likely candidates for the job in the upcoming season are Martin Hanzal and Antoine Vermette. Honestly I don’t like having either in that position (as I have said with Coyotes fans many times before, Hanzal should be a 2nd line center, Vermette a 3rd) but given the Coyotes depth on the bottom six it is more likely than not that one of them will play the “big minutes.”

In order to do a rough evaluation I only used basic statistics instead of diving into the Corsi and Fennwick numbers. Although I hate +/- stat I do think there is some weight to goals scored for and against /60 minutes as it can show more offensive and defensive tendencies.

All following data was retrieved from www.stats.hockeynalysis.com

Super Watered down +/-
Player    Goals for/60    Goals against/60    Goal differential    AVG TOI
Martin Hanzal    2.643          3.003                   -0.36               17:44
Antoine Vermette    1.971     3.121                   -1.15               17:51

Face-Off
Player    Face-Off Offensive Zone    Face-Off Defensive Zone    Face-Off Neutral Zone    Face off win %
Martin Hanzal    32.3                                     27.9                              39.9                              56.5
Antoine Vermette    35.6                                 31                                33.4                              56.7

To summarize my take from the points Hanzal provided more offense in limited appearances with a similar average time on ice, although to be fair Vermette played a lot less and only produced 3 points over a 19 game span in Chicago, playing in a new system in a new role. However, he went from producing at an ok level playing top minutes in an anemic AZ offense to producing almost nothing while playing third line minutes. Hanzal while in AZ played on the second line so theoretically had “easier” competition before going out with season ending back surgery and was therefore able to produce more points. Despite this, the differential is significant enough I would be willing to say:
Advantage Hanzal.

Looking at the face off percentages and the zone starts both are relatively similar at even strength with Vermette getting more offensive zone starts but also more defensive zone starts. Hanzal Started more frequently in the neutral zone, then slightly under a third of the time in the offensive zone. I believe the argument face off wins drive possession, but in this case, both are similar, I would say considering the start percentages and point production Hanzal is better due to his higher point rate while starting in the neutral zone or defensive zone.

The last thing I would consider would be evaluating the “other” category or rather size. Hanzal towers over most competition but often seemed afraid to get dirty, or make hits. If it were due to his back that was hopefully fixed this offseason then I would love to see him screening for OEL, or protecting Domi (who I assume is going to be on the top line) and playing with Boeds. But then again, I constantly have nightmares about this, which in hindsight is not as bad as this.

My opinion is ultimately that Hanzal should be playing that #1 spot until Strome makes the jump or management makes the decision to pursue a legitimate #1 Center via trade.



Thanks for reading.