Keys to Success: Arizona Coyotes

By William Espy

The Arizona Coyotes seemingly dropped off the face of the hockey world following a conference final appearance in 2012. Immediately following that season, the team fell into an almost forced rebuild. Now they have a very deep prospect pool, but they still need a few more assets.

Young #1 Goaltender.

Mike Smith has been a solid goaltender for a majority of his time in Arizona, however last season he seemed to be fading at the NHL level. At the World Championships he showed he still had his skill when he put up a .930 save percentage for team Canada. The Coyotes thought they had their future number one in Mark Visentin, unfortunately for them he never gained traction in professional hockey and he was not qualified as a restricted free agent. The biggest name in their goaltending prospect pool appears to be Louis Domingue, who is a respectable prospect but he will likely never have the ability to start regularly at the NHL level.

A Youth Movement.

With the prospect pool containing players like Domi, Strome, Duclair, Samuelsson, etc. the Coyotes need to make room for those players at the NHL level if they get off to an undesirable start to the season. By the trade deadline, Don Maloney would be smart to get rid of pending UFAs like Gordon, Downie, Grossmann, Chipchura and possibly even Boedker if they cannot get him to agree to a deal for the foreseeable future. The issue with these moves would be trying to stay above the salary floor, however with a lot of space to take back contracts it would likely be much easier to swing a deal. Other players who could possibly be on the way out for specifically goaltending and defensive prospects include Michalek and Smith.

Do Not Rush.

The most important thing for the Coyotes is prospect development. In order to have a good team within the next few years, they have to wait to promote their prospects until they are ready. For example, say Duclair gets off to a tremendous start at the AHL level then they can afford to call him up. If a top prospect like Duclair is not ready to come up, a smarter call up would be someone along the lines of Lessio.

Taking a brief look at potential #1 Centers for the ‘Yotes

By: Seth Haahr

Martin Hanzal:
Age: 28
Height: 6”6”
Goals (2015): 8
Assists (2015): 16
Point (2015: 24
Games Played (2015): 37
G/Gm: 0.216
A/Gm: 0.432
P/Gm:  0.648

Antoine Vermette:
Age: 33
Height: 6’1”
Goals (2015): 13
Assists (2015): 25 (3 with Chicago)
Point (2015: 38
Games Played (2015): 82 (19 in Chicago)
G/Gm: 0.158
A/Gm: 0.305
P/Gm: 0.463

The Coyotes do not have a true #1 C that is ready to play at this moment. The likely candidates for the job in the upcoming season are Martin Hanzal and Antoine Vermette. Honestly I don’t like having either in that position (as I have said with Coyotes fans many times before, Hanzal should be a 2nd line center, Vermette a 3rd) but given the Coyotes depth on the bottom six it is more likely than not that one of them will play the “big minutes.”

In order to do a rough evaluation I only used basic statistics instead of diving into the Corsi and Fennwick numbers. Although I hate +/- stat I do think there is some weight to goals scored for and against /60 minutes as it can show more offensive and defensive tendencies.

All following data was retrieved from www.stats.hockeynalysis.com

Super Watered down +/-
Player    Goals for/60    Goals against/60    Goal differential    AVG TOI
Martin Hanzal    2.643          3.003                   -0.36               17:44
Antoine Vermette    1.971     3.121                   -1.15               17:51

Face-Off
Player    Face-Off Offensive Zone    Face-Off Defensive Zone    Face-Off Neutral Zone    Face off win %
Martin Hanzal    32.3                                     27.9                              39.9                              56.5
Antoine Vermette    35.6                                 31                                33.4                              56.7

To summarize my take from the points Hanzal provided more offense in limited appearances with a similar average time on ice, although to be fair Vermette played a lot less and only produced 3 points over a 19 game span in Chicago, playing in a new system in a new role. However, he went from producing at an ok level playing top minutes in an anemic AZ offense to producing almost nothing while playing third line minutes. Hanzal while in AZ played on the second line so theoretically had “easier” competition before going out with season ending back surgery and was therefore able to produce more points. Despite this, the differential is significant enough I would be willing to say:
Advantage Hanzal.

Looking at the face off percentages and the zone starts both are relatively similar at even strength with Vermette getting more offensive zone starts but also more defensive zone starts. Hanzal Started more frequently in the neutral zone, then slightly under a third of the time in the offensive zone. I believe the argument face off wins drive possession, but in this case, both are similar, I would say considering the start percentages and point production Hanzal is better due to his higher point rate while starting in the neutral zone or defensive zone.

The last thing I would consider would be evaluating the “other” category or rather size. Hanzal towers over most competition but often seemed afraid to get dirty, or make hits. If it were due to his back that was hopefully fixed this offseason then I would love to see him screening for OEL, or protecting Domi (who I assume is going to be on the top line) and playing with Boeds. But then again, I constantly have nightmares about this, which in hindsight is not as bad as this.

My opinion is ultimately that Hanzal should be playing that #1 spot until Strome makes the jump or management makes the decision to pursue a legitimate #1 Center via trade.



Thanks for reading.

Looking at the Coyotes Roster

By Seth Haahr

I’ll be honest, last year was tough to be a Coyotes fan. Finishing 29th out of 30 and missing out on a generational talent (thanks Edmonton) was the salt in the wound. Strome is still a great consolation prize (pretty good right?), but he’s no McDavid or Eichel. This year isn’t shaping up to be much different. With an all-star roster consisting of a likely top 6 of Boedker, Vermette, Hanzal, and Doan with rookies Domi and Duclair having the best shot at making the roster (and seriously needing to be in top 6 roles) it’s only slightly better than closing out last year with Kyle Chipchura facing off against opposing teams top lines. Yeah our bottom 6 is about the best in the business, at least the number of bottom 6 players on the team is intimidating (Vitale, Richardson, Gordon, Chipchura, Doan should be here, Vermette should be here, Downie, Rieder, G.O.A.T. John Scott, Lessio if he makes the permanent jump). Now I wasn’t a math or statistics major in college but I was a science major, and the data doesn’t add up, you have in reality 10 players that should be in these roles to fill 6 spots.

Looking at the defense you have this crazy hyphenated Swedish guy that I’ll just call OEL, Stone, Murphy, Gormley, Dahlbeck, Michalek, and Grossman (that trade about made me vomit). We already know OEL will be on the first pairing, coach Tippet has said Grossman will more than likely end up on the second (seriously the seemingly only Swede that can’t play defense and benefits from great defensive partners). Who do you have play 7th D? Because I seriously can’t see wasting Stone’s physical play and second pairing ability as a 7th D, Murphy should continue to develop into a solid defensemen, Gormley hasn’t gotten a legit chance to play, and Dahlbeck played very well with us last season after the Vermette trade (seriously, thank you Chicago for essentially renting Vermette for Dahlbeck and Merkley). And while Michalek has lost a step the dude would be a legit shut down guy playing on the third pairing where he belongs at this stage of his career. Again, something seems amiss.

I understand that next year will be rough, and I accept that. Am I thrilled? Absolutely not, but to have ownership and coaches say “we will be a lot better this year” and trying to essentially sell me last year’s roster with the differences of having Domi and Duclair is pretty offensive. If I am going to pay my season tickets and watch the team play, at least make it entertaining. Put in Samuelsson, Perlini, Domi, Duclair, Lessio put in the kids and let them learn, maybe you sprinkle in the youth, or maybe you do a lot of what you’re doing now but don’t tell me we may be able to push for a 7th or 8th seed come playoffs.

I applaud what Don Maloney was able to put together on an extremely limited budget during the pre-ICE Arizona days and the heart, grit, and compete Tippet was able to squeeze out of the players in the impressive 2012 WCF run but I seriously wonder what Don Maloney is doing. Our best goaltending prospect who is now playing for the Ice Hogs in the AHL went unsigned after trying to recover from a broken ankle suffered last year at training camp (seriously, you couldn’t give the guy a one year deal?)

Regardless of all this griping I still love my ’Yotes and I will keep watching them. And hey, maybe next year we get the local kid Matthews, or the first Coyotes Captain’s kid Tkachuk (who will be playing alongside one of our great prospects Dvorak in London).

Thanks for reading.

Arizona Coyotes 2015-16 Season Preview

By Alex Hobson

LEADING SCORERS

Oliver Ekman-Larsson (23 G, 20 A, 43 P)
Keith Yandle (4 G, 37 A, 41 P)
Sam Gagner (15 G, 26 A, 41 P)

LAST SEASON

The 2014-15 season was one to forget for the Arizona Coyotes organization and their fans. They didn't come remotely close to contending for the playoffs, and were looking forward to the draft lottery come the month of March. They ended up finishing second last in the league with a record of 24-50-8, and traded some key players at the trade deadline for further assets. They began trading their assets in December, sending forward Rob Klinkhammer and a 5th round pick in 2016 to the Edmonton Oilers in exchange for Phillip Samuelsson, and then began unloading their team at the deadline, then proceeded to trade goaltender Devan Dubnyk to the Minnesota Wild in exchange for a 2015 3rd round pick. They then began unloading assets at the deadline, where they moved several key players.The largest move was trading defenseman Keith Yandle along with defenseman Chris Summers and a 4th round pick in 2016 to the New York Rangers in exchange for defenseman John Moore, forward Anthony Duclair, a 2nd round pick in 2015 and a conditional 1st round pick in 2016. They also sent veteran Antoine Vermette to the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for defenseman Klas Dahlbeck and a 1st round pick in 2015, and veteran Zybnek Michalek along with a 3rd round pick to the St Louis Blues in exchange for prospect Maxin Letunov. Essentially, the Coyotes cleaned house at the deadline, and then looked forward to the draft lottery, where unfortunately for them, they lost out on the McEichel sweepstakes and landed the 3rd overall pick in the draft. Nothing was going right for the Coyotes, but they hoped for the best and looked forward to the draft.

OFFSEASON

IN

Nicklas Grossmann
Chris Pronger
Boyd Gordon
Antoine Vermette
Anders Lindback
Zybnek Michalek
Steve Downie
Brad Richardson
Alex Grant
John Scott
Michael Bunting
Niklas Treutle


OUT

Justin Hodgman
Mark Visentin
Tye McGinn
Mark Arcobello
Sam Gagner
John Moore
Martin Erat
BJ Crombeen
David Moss
Mike McKenna
Alexandre Bolduc
Andrew Campbell
Patrick McNeill

The Coyotes began the 2015 offseason on draft day, where they had the third overall selection in the first round. As everyone knows, it was a given that Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel were going to go #1 and #2 respectively, so there was tons of speculation surrounding the team on whether they would go with the big centre in Dylan Strome, or the big defenseman in Noah Hanifin. Eventually, the speculation came to an end when GM Don Maloney took to the stage and selected Strome. This was a great start to the offseason, but there was still work to be done. After releasing several players that would likely not hold a place in the 2015-16 lineup such as Martin Erat and David Moss, the Coyotes brought back veterans Zybnek Michalek and Antoine Vermette to the team to mentor younger players who are new to the big league. They also brought in veteran defenseman Nicklas Grossmann and gritty forwards Steve Downie and John Scott to provide some toughness to the team, along with cheap players such as Brad Richardson and Anders Lindback. In the Nicklas Grossmann deal, they also took on the contract of all-but-retired defenseman Chris Pronger, but there is absolutely no chance he plays with the team this coming year.

NEXT SEASON PT 1. OFFENSE
The Arizona Coyotes have an interesting case when it comes to their scoring touch. Last year, their top two scorers were both defensemen in Oliver Ekman-Larsson and since departed Keith Yandle. But forward wise, look for most of their scoring to be lead by Danish scorer Mikkel Boedker as well as Antoine Vermette and Martin Hanzal. Watch for young players Max Domi and Anthony Duclair to make a serious push for the lineup and make an impact if they make the team.

NEXT SEASON PT 2. DEFENSE

In general, the Coyotes defense looks about the same as last year. They lost top defenseman Keith Yandle via trade, but they have Zybnek Michalek and Nicklas Grossmann in terms of older and more experienced defensemen, with their youth core being lead by Oliver Ekman-Larsson. Look for Brandon Gormley and Connor Murphy to step up into bigger roles, and also watch for Klas Dahlbeck to challenge for a regular spot on the team.

NEXT SEASON PT 3. GOALTENDING

As far as goaltending goes for the Coyotes, their one-two punch is generally a given. They will more than likely go with Mike Smith as their starter with free agency acquisition Anders Lindback backing him up. As for youngsters, recently signed Niklas Treutle could step up and act as a replacement when either goalie gets injured, but it's hard to predict at this point.

POSSIBLE 2015-16 OPENING NIGHT LINEUP

Mikkel Boedker - Martin Hanzal - Shane Doan
Tobias Rieder - Antoine Vermette - Anthony Duclair
Max Domi - Brad Richardson - Steve Downie
Joe Vitale - Boyd Gordon - John Scott

Oliver Ekman-Larsson - Zybnek Michalek
Nicklas Grossmann - Michael Stone
Brandon Gormley - Klas Dahlbeck

Mike Smith
Anders Lindback

Not So-Grand Canyon?

By William Espy

On Wednesday night, the city of Glendale, Arizona voted to terminate the Coyotes’ arena deal putting the franchise in a difficult situation. The most likely resolution to this issue will be a move back to Phoenix; however this does not appear to be the best solution for the team or the league. Andrew Barroway has repeatedly emphasized that he has no intentions to move the Coyotes, however a move is seemingly necessary and now is the perfect time.

The NHL has been gaining large amounts of interest from various parties in Las Vegas, Nevada and relocation to this city may be exactly what is needed to revive the failing Coyotes franchise. The Coyotes have been in existence for nearly twenty years, and during this time there has been very little interest toward the sport of hockey in the area. If you asked the average citizen in Arizona about "Duclair", they'd likely think you're talking about a kind of French dessert. Players such as Keith Tkachuk and Shane Doan would create large amounts of hype in most areas, but seemingly not in Arizona. Even in long Cup runs in recent history, the Coyotes never got out of the bottom 5 for attendance (attendance figures shown in the chart at the bottom). The team continues to lose large sums of money while failing to grow the sport in a very untraditional area.

The Coyotes stand out from most untraditional market in various ways; however one seems to stand out above the rest to me. Los Angeles, Anaheim, San Jose, Tampa Bay and Dallas all have one thing in common; they are all essentially a metropolis. The Kings and Ducks are a part of Orange County, San Jose represents the San Francisco Bay Area, etc. Phoenix is a large city; however it is nowhere near the level of these massive cities. Las Vegas would provide a metropolitan environment for the team allowing for large amounts of international tourism while also growing the sport in a more effective way than the Coyotes ever can. A team placed in Las Vegas would instantly gain media support largely due to the fact that it would be the only professional team in the city beside the minor league baseball team the 51s.

Relocating to Las Vegas would not damage current Coyotes fans for the most part either. Being only a four hour drive from Glendale, fans would be able to take a trip with little difficulty.

Las Vegas would not only solve financial issues for the Coyotes organization, it would at the same time help grow the sport in an extremely untraditional market and instantly boost the attendance numbers. Andrew Barroway has repeatedly stressed that he is not interested in a relocation, however he needs to highly consider a move to save hockey in the area.

(Chart credit to Statista.com)