By Alex Hobson
I know what you're thinking right now. Heading into this article and reading the title, you're probably thinking "There's not much to analyze. Take Matthews and be done with it". But that's not the point of my article. I'm going to talk about the lottery, the draft, the offseason, and next season.
Lets start off with the draft lottery, which took place last night. The deal with this lottery was that instead of doing a draw simply for the first pick, they instead did one for each of the top three picks. This was actually quite fitting, considering there was a massive drop off in the rankings after the consensous number one, two, and three in Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Jesse Puljujarvi. Yes, Matthew Tkachuk, Jakob Chychrun, and Pierre-Luc Dubois are all quite talented, but they aren't on the same level as the top three.
Essentially, I would have only been truly disappointed had the Leafs slipped to fourth overall. Obviously first overall was the goal, but I wouldn't complain about second or third, and I'm sure the same goes for other fans.
Anyways, when the lottery began, everything was normal up until NHL Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly announced that the Calgary Flames would hold the sixth overall pick, meaning that since the Winnipeg Jets were before them, that the Jets had scored a top three pick. He then announced that the Vancouver Canucks would hold the fifth overall pick, meaning that since the Columbus Blue Jackets were before them, the Jackets had also scored a top three pick.
This left one spot open left for the Maple Leafs in the top three.
Everyone was on their feet, and then Daly announced that the Edmonton Oilers would secure the fourth pick, meaning the Leafs had a spot in the top three. Then everybody breathed a huge sign of relief. He went on to reveal the Jackets logo at third overall, so it was down to the Leafs and the Jets for first overall.
And then it happened.
He revealed the new Maple Leafs logo at #1 overall, and captured the hearts of Leafs fans everywhere. The last time the Leafs had the first overall pick was in 1985, when they used it to select Wendel Clark. Luck was finally starting to go their way again.
WHO TO PICK?
To some fans, this shouldn't even be a question. To some, there could be debate. Recently, Patrik Laine has begun to challenge the highly touted Auston Matthews for the top spot considering he led his SM Liiga team to a championship as an 18 year old and gained MVP honors.
A player like Laine would be beautiful to have, but at this point, the obvious choice should be Matthews. Think about it. Ever since Maple Leafs legend Mats Sundin left the team in 2008, the Leafs have lacked a true #1 centre. They've got one sitting right in front of them with Matthews. He's big at 6'2 and 195lbs, he's smart both offensively and defensively, has a great shot and excellent vision on the ice, and was over a point per game in the Swiss league. Former NHL coach Marc Crawford, who coached Matthews in Switzerland, describes him as a player you build a contender around.
Think of it this way. Matthews is comparable to Jonathan Toews, while Laine is comparable to Jamie Benn. Right now, the Leafs are more in need of a Toews than a Benn. They have two potential superstars on the wing in Mitch Marner and William Nylander (both can play centre, but are rather unproven there) and if Matthews joins the organization, the Leafs have their future number one. For those reasons, I think Matthews is definitely the better choice heading into the 2016 NHL Draft.
WHAT HAPPENS IF THE LEAFS PICK MATTHEWS?
This is where some questions come into play. Matthews is obviously a clear cut choice in the centre core considering that's his primary position and he has the size to do so, but that leaves two other centres in Nazem Kadri and William Nylander, neither of whom would benefit from third line minutes.
SCENARIO 1: Move Nylander to the Wing
Nylander was drafted as a right wing who likes to play centre, and he very well could play centre for the Maple Leafs. Nylander is a lock to make the team next season and if we have him on the wing, then our one two punch at centre is Nazem Kadri and Auston Matthews.
SCENARIO 2: Move Kadri to the Wing
This scenario is highly unlikely, given that Kadri greatly improved his defensive play and faceoff ability this season, and there would essentially be two rookies acting as the top two centres, which isn't an overly smart idea.
SCENARIO 3: Have all three play centre, use second and third lines in 2A and 2B format
This is another likely scenario. Mike Babcock is known to play his lines the way he wants instead of going with the typical "first line gets most minutes, fourth line gets least". He could very well have Kadri centre the top line with Matthews and Nylander acting as co-second line centres, playing both lines equally.
SCENARIO 4: Trade both Nylander and Matthews, bring Troy Bodie out of retirement and play him first line
No, don't actually do that.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The Leafs struck gold big time. They have a chance at claiming their first true number one centre in years, who's ready to play NHL minutes now and will be a key piece to the rebuild. It's going to be a long two months until the draft, but it's safe to say that things are looking up for the Maple Leafs.
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